Today, the last two Democratic primaries are being held in Montana and South Dakota. Senator Obama needs 41.5 delegates to go over the magic number and end the race. There aren’t enough delegates in the two states to push him over the magic number. He will need between 25 and 30 super delegates to commit his way to push him over the top.
Will they do it today? Who knows.
It would make sense (politically and for the unity and good of the party), if they support him for these delegates to come out today, before the polls close so that the delegates and votes he earns tonight actually close the deal.
I suspect that many of the delegates will wait until after the final votes are cast. Some politicians find safety “sitting on the fence”.
Despite what the media tells us, I suspect that nobody really knows exactly when the magic number will be hit. The media is talking about it to build the drama. That is what media do.
My guess is that it will happen at some point this week. We’ll see.
What I would like to reflect on is the fact that 15 short months ago, nobody, except those close to him, gave Barack Obama a chance. Hillary had all the name recognition, the support of the party insiders, the majority of super delegate endorsements, all the big money support and more.
What did Barack have?
The better message, the better plan and hope.
From day one, his campaign was more in touch with the mood of the country. He ran as an agent of change at a point where that is what the country is looking for.
For me, it is his effort to create a new brand of politics. A positive style of open and honest debate of issues, an end to the muckraking, that attracted me.
I ran a similar campaign and it has been heartening and refreshing to see someone carry that mantle at the national level. National elections, with the explosion of cable media and the Internet have been increasingly mean spirited. I don’t expect that to stop anytime soon, but at least Barack has proven one can succeed to the point of the nomination, without going that route. Perhpas that will serve as a model for future elections.
I believe that this election has shown us that racism and sexism still do exist. However, I believe the campaign has also shows that these problems have diminished. How else could on explain a black man and a woman receiving so many votes? More and more people have looked past such issues and voted for their preferred candidate, regardless of race or gender. That in itself has been a positive sign that our nation, in general, is maturing and more open minded.
I believe that the protracted campaign has helped Senator Obama. He has had to deal with issues and adversity that are generally reserved for a General Election. This will only serve to have toughened him up for the Fall.
Did anyone really expect Barack’s path to be easy? Is it any wonder the process has taken this long. Realize this, the Clinton family is beloved in many Democratic circles. Many remember fondly 8 years of peace and prosperity we had under Bill Clinton’s administration. Many Democrats are still sore over the bashing he received by the far right and the nutjobs like Rush Limbaugh. Those memories have galvanized a large voting block in support of Mrs. Clinton. The Clintons were the Camelot of their generation.
I think Barack Obama has become the candidate of the next generation. Our JFK, our RFK and yes, our Bill Clinton.
Though I haven’t agreed with her campaign, I have nothing against Mrs. Clinton. I respect her immensely for her service and her intestinal fortitude to carry her campaign though the odds are now against her. She has in many ways served as an example to future women and young ladies for what they can achieve.
Unfortunately, in any contest, there can only be one winner. We have been blessed this year with two fine candidates, both capable of leading and both capable of winning in the Fall. The road has been long and hard but it has brought positive things to the Democratic Party moving forward.
I am excited as a Democrat to see so many new people coming to the process. Young people have got interested and involved in unheard of numbers. I am also excited to see that both candidates have dwarfed the Republican opponent with their fundraising. Thse things show me that people are tired of politics as usual and taking an active interest in the future of our country and our democracy.
Soon, maybe tonight, these two political juggernauts will combine their forces in a manner they decide on. I believe that once they combine their energy and the energy of their supporters together, the Repbulcians are in trouble.
We can only hope….
-Paul